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2005-08-02
¸¹Àº ºÐµéÀÌ Áß±¹ÀÇ ±º»ç·Â¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ½Ã°¢À» ¸¹ÀÌ ¸»¾¸ÇϽôµ¥ ±×°Í¿¡ µµ¿òµÇ¶ó°í ¿Ã¸³´Ï´Ù. Æ柰ïÀÇ ½Ã°¢°ú ¹Ì±¹ µ¿¾Æ½Ã¾Æ Àü¹®°¡ÀÇ ÀÇ°ßµµ ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù. ±ÛÀ» ¾´»ç¶÷Àº Austin Ramzy¶ó´Â µ¿¾Æ½Ã¾Æ Àü¹®°¡ÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ¿¹Àü µ¿ºÏ°øÁ¤ ÇÑÁß°ü°è ÁßÀÏ°ü°è µî¿¡ °üÇÑ ¸¹Àº ¸®Æ÷Æ®¸¦ ÀÛ¼ºÇÑ »ç¶÷ÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ¿øº»ÀÌ ¿µ¹®ÀÎ °ü°è·Î Á¦°¡ ¹ø¿ªÇÏ°í ¾à°£ÀÇ ÀÇ¿ªÀ»  ¹®´Üº°·Î ÇÏ¿© ³õ¾Ò½À´Ï´Ù. ÀÇ°ßÀ» Ç®¾î°¡´Â °üÁ¡ÀÌ ¹Ì±¹ÀÎÀÓÀ» À¯ÀÇÇÏ½Ã¸ç º¸½Ã±â ¹Ù¶ø´Ï´Ù. ¹ø¿ªÀÌ Æ²¸°°÷ÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù¸é ¸®Ç÷Π°íÃÄÁֽñ⠹ٶø´Ï´Ù. ÀÌÂü¿¡ ¿µ¾î°øºÎµµ ÇÏÁö¿ä ¹¹ ¿µ¹® ¿øº»¸¸À» º¸½ÇºÐÀº ÷ºÎÆÄÀÏÀ» ´Ù¿î·ÎµåÇÏ¿© º¸½Ã±â ¹Ù¶ø´Ï´Ù. TIME AUGUST 1, 2005  _NOTEBOOK_ China military Article The P.L.A. is getting smaller but stronger Should the World be Worried? º´·Â±Ô¸ð´Â ÀÛ¾ÆÁö³ª ´õ¿í °­ÇØÇØÁö´Â Áß±¹ ÀιÎÇع決 ¼¼°è´Â ¿ì·ÁÇØ¾ß Çϴ°¡?   The Pentagon released its annual assessment of the Chinese military last week, and it went further than ever before. The ¡°pace and scope¡± of China¡¯s armed forces modernization could now ¡°put regional military balances at risk.¡± it asserted, ¡°potentially posing a credible threat to modern militaries operating in the region.¡± Beijing reacted angrily, dismissing Washington¡¯s ¡°improper comments¡± as unwarranted interference. But what is the current state of China¡¯s armed forces, and do they pose a threat to Asia or beyond?       ¹Ì ±¹¹æ¼º Æ柰ïÀÌ Áö³­ ÁÖ¿¡ ¹èÆ÷ÇÑ Áß±¹ ±º¿¡ °üÇÑ ¿¬·ÊÆò°¡ º¸°í¼­¿¡¼­ ¡®Áß±¹±ºÀÇ Çö´ëÈ­ÀÇ ¼Óµµ¿Í ±º»çÀû µ¿ÇâÀ¸·Î ºÁ¼­ Áß±¹Àº µ¿¾Æ½Ã¾Æ Áö¿ªÀÇ À§±â¿¡ ÀÖ¾î ¹Ì±¹°ú ´ëµîÇÑ ±º»çÀû ±ÕÇüÀڷμ­ÀÇ ±æÀ» °¡°íÀÚ ÇÏ´Â °Í °°´Ù.¡¯ ¶ó°í ´Ü¾ðÇÏ°í ¡®ÀÌ °°Àº Áß±¹ÀÇ ±ºÇö´ëÈ­´Â ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ µ¿¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÁö¿ª¿¡¼­ÀÇ Çö´ëÀûÀÎ ±º»çÀÛÀü¿¡ ´ëÇØ È®½ÇÇÏ°í ¼³µæ·Â ÀÖ´Â ÀáÀçÀûÀÎ À§ÇùÀÌ µÇ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç ¾ÕÀ¸·Î ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ Áß±¹±ºÀÇ ¹Ì±¹¿¡ ´ëÇÑ À§ÇùÀº ¾ÕÀ¸·Î ´õ¿í´õ ÈξÀ °¡¼ÓÈ­ µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.¡¯¶ó¸ç ¿ì·Á¸¦ ³ªÅ¸³Â´Ù. ÀÌ¿¡ Áß±¹ÃøÀº ¡®¹Ì±¹ÀÌ ±×¸©µÇ°í ºÎ´çÇϸç Ÿ´çÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀº ¸»·Î¼­ Áß±¹¿¡ ´ëÇØ ºÎ´çÇÑ °£¼·À» ÇÑ´Ù¸ç Àç°íÀÇ °¡Ä¡µµ ¾ø´Â °ÍÀ̶ó¸ç¡¯ ºÒÄèÇÑ ¹ÝÀÀÀ» º¸¿´´Ù. ±×·¯³ª Áß±¹±ºÀÇ ÇöÀç »óÅÂ¿Í ¸ð½ÀÀº ¾î¶°ÇÑ°¡? ¶ÇÇÑ ±×µéÀÌ ¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ȤÀº ¾Æ½Ã¾Æ¿Í Àü¼¼°è¿¡ ÁÖ´Â À§ÇùÀº ¹«¾ùÀΰ¡?   ♦ How large is the people¡¯s Liberation Army(P.L.A)?         Big, but still trailing the 1.4million-member U.S. armed forces in terms of technology and equipment. Beijing has been transforming its military into a leaner, more effective fighting machine. This year it plans to cut troop numbers by 200,000, bringing its total to 2.3 million, while upgrading its strategic missiles, aircraft, warships and submarines. ¡æ◊Áß±¹ ÀιÎÇع決(P.L.A.)ÀÇ ±Ô¸ð´Â ¾ó¸¶³ª µÇ´Â°¡? Áß±¹±ºÀÇ º´·Â±Ô¸ð´Â ¸Å¿ì Å©´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ÇöÀç Áß±¹Àº ÀÚ±¹ ±ºÀÇ º´·Â±Ô¸ð¸¦ ÁÙÀÌ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç ¶ÇÇÑ ´õ¿í È¿°úÀûÀÎ ±º Àåºñ °³¼±°ú ȹµæ¿¡ ÁßÁ¡À» µÎ¾î ±º üÁúÀ» °³¼±ÇÏ°í ¹Ù²Ù°í ÀÖ´Ù. 2005³âµµ ¿ÃÇØ ±º Àüü º´·Â Áß 20¸¸ ¸íÀ» °¨Ãà ÃÖÁ¾ 230¸¸ ¸í ¼±±îÁö ±º º´·ÂÀ» À¯ÁöÇÑ´Ù´Â °èȹÀÎ ¹Ý¸é¿¡ Àü·«¹Ì»çÀÏ, Ç×°ø±â, ÇÔÁ¤°ú Àá¼öÇÔÀü·Â µîÀ» °³¼± Áõ°­ÇÑ´Ù´Â °èȹÀ» °®°í ÀÖ´Ù. ÀÌ¿¡ ¹ÝÇØ ¹Ì±ºÀº ¹Ì±ºÀÇ ±â¼ú°ú ÀåºñÀÇ Ã·´ÜÈ­¶ó´Â ¸ñÀû¿¡ ºñÃß¾î º¸¸é ¿©ÀüÈ÷ 140¸¸ ¸íÀÇ º´·ÂÀ» À¯ÁöÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ♦ How much does China spend on defense?   The only consensus among foreign observers is that China spends more than it says it does. The official budget for 2005 is about $29.9 billion, a 13% increase from he previous year. (The pentagon¡¯s budget request is $401.7 billion for this year, up 7% from 2004) The U.S. report says Beijing¡¯s actual defense spending could be two or three times higher than the official number. If China spent $90 billion, the high side of pentagon estimates, it would be he third biggest military spender in the world after the U.S. and Russia. ¡æ◊ Áß±¹ÀÇ ±¹¹æºñÀÇ ±Ô¸ð´Â ¾î¶»°Ô µÇ´Â°¡? Áß±¹ÀÇ 2005³â °ø½ÄÀûÀÎ ±¹¹æ¿¹»êÀº Àü³â´ëºñ 13% Áõ°¡µÈ 299¾ïºÒÀ̸ç Âü°í·Î 2005³â ¹Ì±¹ ±¹¹æ¿¹»êÀº Àü³â´ëºñ 7% ÀλóµÈ 4,017¾ïºÒÀÌ´Ù. ÇÏÁö¸¸ Áß±¹ÀÇ ±¹¹æºñ ÁöÃâÀº ±×µéÀÌ ¸»ÇÏ´Â ¼öÄ¡º¸´Ù ÈξÀ ³Ñ¾î ÁöÃâÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀÌ Àü¼¼°è ±¹°¡µéÀÇ Áß·ÐÀ̸ç, ¹Ì±¹ º¸°í¼­¿¡ ÀÇÇϸé Áß±¹ÀÇ ½ÇÁúÀûÀÎ ±¹¹æºñ ÁöÃâÀº °ø½Ä ±¹¹æºñ ¿¹»ê¾× ¼öÄ¡ÀÇ 2~3¹è¿¡ ´ÞÇÒ  °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¸»ÇÑ´Ù. ¹Ì±¹ ±¹¹æ¼º Æ柰ïÀº Áß±¹ÀÇ ½ÇÁú ±¹¹æºñ¸¦ 900¾ïºÒ·Î Ãß»êÇϴµ¥ ÀÌ·² °æ¿ì Áß±¹Àº Àü¼¼°è¿¡¼­ ¹Ì±¹ ·¯½Ã¾Æ ´ÙÀ½À¸·Î ¸¹Àº ±¹¹æºñ¸¦ °¡Àå ¸¹ÀÌ ÁöÃâÇÏ´Â ±¹°¡ Áß 3À§¸¦ Â÷ÁöÇÑ´Ù.   ♦ Is China¡¯s main focus Taiwan? Yes. An ultimate reunification with Taiwan, which Beijing sees as a renegade province, is the driving force for China¡¯s military modernization. Still, China ¡°does not yet possess the military capability to accomplish with confidence its political objectives on the island, particularly when confronted with outside intervention,¡± the report says. ¡æ◊ Áß±¹°ú Áß±¹±ºÀÇ ÁÖ ¸ñÀûÀº ´ë¸¸Àΰ¡? ±×·¸´Ù. Áß±¹Á¤ºÎ¿Í Áß±¹±ºÀÇ ±Ã±ØÀûÀÎ ¸ñÀûÀº ÅëÀÏÀ» À§ÇÑ ´ë¸¸À» ÀçÈí¼ö ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ¸ç ±×·¯±â À§ÇØ ±ºÀ» Çö´ëÈ­ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù. Áß±¹Á¤ºÎ´Â ´ë¸¸ÀÇ Á¤Ã¼¼ºÀ» ÀÎÁ¤ÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀ¸¸ç ´ÜÁö ¹è½ÅÀÚ, º¯ÀýÀÚÀÇ ¼ºÀ¸·Î ¹Ù¶óº¼ »ÓÀÌ¸ç ±× ÀÌ»ó ±× ÀÌÇϵµ ¾Æ´Ï´Ù.     ¾ÆÁ÷ Áß±¹Àº ´ë¸¸¼¶ÀÇ ÅëÀÏÀ» ¿Ï¼öÇϱâ À§ÇÑ Á¤Ä¡Àû ¸ñÀû¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ½Å³äÀ» °®Àº ÃæºÐÇÑ ±º»ç·ÂÀ» °®Áö ¸øÇÏ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç ƯÈ÷, ¹Ì±¹ ÀϺ» µîÀÇ °ßÁ¦¿Í °£¼·¿¡ Á÷¸éÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù°í ¹Ì±¹ ±¹¹æ¼º º¸°í¼­´Â ¸»ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.       ♦ Is Taiwan the only potential trouble spot? Perhaps not. The pentagon argues that China is developing military capabilities that extend farther. It says the estimated 650 or 730 Chinese short-range ballistic missiles placed among the Taiwan Strait could be deployed to other positions. And improvements in the Chinese air force¡¯s ability to refuel airborne fighters and its navy¡¯s acquisition of destroyers and submarines could help make China a threat father afield. Still, says bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the Washington D.C.-based Center for Strategic and international studies: ¡°The threat to the region is [currently a matter of] capabilities, not necessarily intent.¡± Thomas Christensen, a Princeton University professor of politics and international affairs, says the point of the latest report is that ¡°given the political uncertainties in China, the military capability that¡¯s being developed could be turned against the U.S. or its allies in the future.¡± That fear was exacerbated two weeks ago when a major general in the P.L.A. threatened the destruction of hundreds of American cities if the U.S. attacks Chinese territory-including warship or aircraft- in a conflict over Taiwan. Beijing insisted that the general was speaking for himself. And for now, according to most estimates, there are fewer than 30 Chinese missiles capable of hitting the continental U.S. with a nuclear warhead.                                        ¡æ◊ Áß±¹Á¤ºÎ ¹× Áß±¹±º¿¡ ÀÖ¾î ÀáÀçÀû ¹®Á¦Á¡Àº ´ë¸¸ »ÓÀΰ¡? ¾Æ¸¶µµ Áß±¹Á¤ºÎ¿Í Áß±¹±ºÀº ´ë¸¸¸¸À» ÀáÀçÀûÀÎ ¹®Á¦·Î »ý°¢ÇÏÁö´Â ¾ÊÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ÀÌ¿¡ °üÇؼ­ ¹Ì±¹ ±¹¹æ¼º Æ柰£¼­´Â Áß±¹ÀÇ ±º»ç·Â Çö´ëÈ­¿Í ±ººñÈ®Àå°ú ±×·ÎÀÎÇÑ Áß±¹ ±º»ç·Â À§ÇùÀÇ È®Àå¿¡ ´ëÇØ ³íÀÇ ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¹Ì±¹ ±¹¹æ¼º Æ柰£¼­ÀÇ Áß±¹ ±º»ç·Â¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ³íÀÇ ³»¿ë°ú º¸°í¼­¿¡ ÀÇÇϸé Áß±¹Àº ´ë¸¸ÇØÇù¿¡ ¹èÄ¡ÇÑ 650¿¡¼­ 730±âÀÇ ´Ü°Å¸® źµµ ¹Ì»çÀÏÀ» ´Ù¸¥ Áö¿ªÀ¸·Î ¹èÄ¡ÇÏ¿© È°¿ëÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀ̶ó°í ÇÑ´Ù. ±×¸®°í Áß±¹ÀÇ °ø±º ÀüÆø±â¸¦ À§ÇÑ °øÁß±ÞÀ¯´É·ÂÁõÁø°ú ÇرºÀÇ ±¸ÃàÇÔ°ú Àá¼öÇÔÀü·ÂÀÇ È®Ãæ°ú Áõ°­Àº ÇöÀ纸´Ù ´õ ¿ø°Å¸®ÀÎ Áö¿ª±îÁö À§ÇùÀÌ µÉ °ÍÀÓÀ» ÁÖÀåÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¿ö½ÌÅÏD.C.ÀÇ ±¹Á¦Àü·«¿¬±¸¼¾ÅÍÀÇ ´ëÁß±¹ Àü¹®°¡ Bonnie Glaser´Â ¡®ÇöÀç ´Ü°è¿¡¼­ ±× °°Àº ¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÁö¿ª¿¡¼­ÀÇ Áß±¹ ¹Ì»çÀÏÀü·Â ¹× Çرº°ú °ø±ºÀÇ ±º»çÀûÀÎ À§ÇùÀº ´ë¸¸Ä§°ø µî°ú °°Àº ½ÇÁ¦ÀûÀÎ µµ¹ß Àǵµ°¡ ¾Æ´Ï¶ó Çö´ëÈ­µÇ°í Áõ°­µÈ ±º»ç·ÂÀ» Áß±¹ÀÌ °®´Â °Í ÀÚü°¡ À§ÇùÀÌ´Ù.¡¯¶ó°í ¿©ÀüÈ÷ ¸»ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.     ¹Ì±¹ ÇÁ¸°½ºÅÏ ´ëÇб³ ±¹Á¦°ü°è ¹× Á¤Ä¡ÇÐ ±³¼öÀÎ Thomas ChristensenÀº ÃÖ±Ù º¸°í¼­¿¡¼­ ¡®Áß±¹ ³» Á¤Ä¡Àû ºÒÈ®½Ç¼º°ú ºÒÅõ¸í¼ºÀÌ ³ô¾ÆÁö¸é Áß±¹ÀÇ ±º»ç·ÂÀº Àå·¡¿¡ ¹Ì±¹ ȤÀº ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ µ¿¸Í±¹µéÀ» ÇâÇØ Ãѱ¸¸¦ ÇâÇÏ°Ô µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.¡¯¶ó°í Çϸç Áß±¹ À§Çù·ÐÀ» ÁÖÀåÇÏ¿´´Ù. ÀÌ´Â 2ÁÖÀü ¾î´À Áß±¹ ÀιÎÇع決 À°±º¼ÒÀåÀÌ ¡®¸¸ÀÏ Áß±¹°ú ŸÀÌ¿Ï°£ ¾ç¾È ºÐÀï ½Ã ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ÇÔÁ¤°ú ÀüÆø±â¿¡ ÀÇÇØ Áß±¹¿µÅ並 °ø°Ý ¹ÞÀ» °æ¿ì Áß±¹Àº ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ¼ö¹é°³ÀÇ µµ½ÃµéÀ» Çٹ̻çÀÏ·Î °ø°ÝÇÒ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.¡¯ ¶ó°í À§Çù ÇÔÀ¸·Î¼­ ¹Ì±¹°ú Áß±¹ÀÇ ±äÀåÀÌ ¾ÇÈ­µÇ¸é¼­ ¾Õ¼­ ¸»ÇÑ Thomas Christensen Áß±¹ÀÇ À§Çù·ÐÀÌ ÈûÀ» ¾ò°Ô µÇ¾ú´Ù. Áß±¹ÃøÀº ÀÏ°³ À°±º¼ÒÀåÀÇ °³ÀÎÀû ÀÇ°ßÀ̶ó°í ¼ö½ÀÇÏÁö¸¸,  Áö±Ý ÇöÀç, ´ëºÎºÐÀÇ ÁÖÀå°ú ÀÇ°ß¿¡ µû¸£¸é Áß±¹Àº 30±â ÀÌÇÏÀÇ ÇÙźµÎ ¹Ì»çÀÏÀÌ ¹Ì±¹ º»Å並 °ø°ÝÇÒ ´É·ÂÀÌ ÀÖÀ½Àº »ç½ÇÀÎ°Í °°´Ù.                                                                                       - By Austin Ramzy  
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